Lineup check — The Fourth Dimension

Let me start by understanding the situation. It's Sunday, Oct 18, 2026, 8:06 AM ET. This is week 6. I'm The Fourth Dimension (team 12), 3-2, playing Second Overall (team 5). The task: games in this window start soon — the first window includes JAX and HOU at 9:30 AM ET (London game, presumably), and then 1:00 PM ET games. The deadline for this session is 13:30 UTC = 9:30 AM ET. Wait, let me check: "deadline_at":"2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z" — 13:30 UTC = 9:30 AM ET. So this session's window is the 9:30 AM ET kickoff (JAX/HOU — London games). My lineup: - WR1: Puka Nacua (LAR) — clean, not locked, proj 22.64 - TE: Brock Bowers (LV) — clean, proj 16.87. Wait, LV plays Monday night? Let me check. Actually LV — I need to check the schedule. Bowers is LV. Week 6 — when does LV play? - RB1: Kenneth Walker (KC) — clean, proj 22.81. KC — when does KC play? Actually Walker's proj is high. - QB: Drake Maye (NE) — plays at 1:00 PM ET vs NYJ (per scratchpad: "Maye 11564 (20.65 vs NYJ)"). - WR2: Mike Evans (SF) — Questionable, MNF 8:15p vs WAS per scratchpad. SF... wait, scratchpad says Evans is SF (WR, SF). That's odd — Mike Evans on SF in this simulated 2026 season. OK, it's a simulation; data says SF. MNF game vs WAS. - K: Brandon Aubrey (DAL) — DAL plays... 4:25 PM probably (window 4:05 ET). Actually the next locks show JAX 9:30, HOU 9:30, then a bunch at 1:00 PM. Later windows at 4:05 and 8:20 exist per scheduled sessions (2:39 PM session for 4:05 window, 6:54 PM for 8:20 window, Mon 6:48 PM for Monday 8:15). - DST: PHI — Philadelphia, plays... probably 1:00 or 4:25. PHI not in the next_locks list for 9:30/1:00 — so PHI plays later (4:05 or 4:25 window). - RB2: Woody Marks (HOU) — plays JAX at 9:30 AM ET (London game!). HOU is in the next_locks for 9:30 AM. - FLEX: Tyler Allgeier (ARI) — ARI not in the 1:00 PM list either. ARI probably plays later (4:05/4:25 window). - Bench: Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN @ IND 1:00 PM), Rome Odunze (CHI 1:00 PM), Xavier Worthy (KC), Aaron Rodgers (PIT), Dalton Schultz (HOU — 9:30 AM game!). - IR: Jordan Mason. Key points for this window: 1. Woody Marks (RB2) plays at 9:30 AM ET in the London game (HOU @ JAX presumably). His injury status is null in the roster data shown. Scratchpad says "HOU Monty Doubtful" — Montgomery doubtful, so Marks is the lead back. Good. 2. Dalton Schultz (bench, HOU) also locks at 9:30 AM but he's on the bench — doesn't matter. 3. The Evans pivot rule: The scratchpad says the Sunday 11:34 AM session is the LAST chance to pivot (because Wan'Dale/Odunze lock at Sun 1 PM). Evans is MNF. But wait — this session's deadline is 9:30 AM ET (the London window). The pivot decision deadline is really 11:34 AM (the next lineup check session) or actually until Wan'Dale's kickoff at 1:00 PM. But I can also act now. Actually, let me re-read the pivot rule: - Evans Q — rib fracture + new Achilles soreness; DNP Thu, worked on side Fri; MNF 8:15p vs WAS; not downgraded. - Break-even p = 70% (16.3 vs 11.44 fallback). - PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 (Allgeier stays FLEX) if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans. - Sun sessions: 8:04a (Marks window) = THIS session, 11:34a (TRUE pivot deadline), 2:39p, 6:54p, Mon 6:48p (too late to pivot; Evans inactives ~6:45p Mon). So this session (8:06 AM) is the Marks window. The main things to verify now: 1. Marks status for the 9:30 AM London game — is he healthy and starting? Check injury status and web for late news. 2. Check Evans news — any Saturday report or Sunday AM scratch reports. If bad news, pivot now (though I could also wait until 11:34 — but the scratchpad says pivot if "any scratch report by Sun am"). Actually the 11:34 session is the TRUE pivot deadline because Wan'Dale/Odunze lock at 1 PM. But this session ends at 9:30 AM. Hmm, actually the deadline_at for this session is 9:30 AM ET — the session presumably needs to conclude before the first kickoff. So I should make any lineup changes that need to happen for the 9:30 window (Marks-related), and I can also decide on Evans now if there's clear news. If Evans news is unclear, I can defer to the 11:34 session. Wait, but is Evans' MNF game decision better made now or at 11:34? The pivot rule says pivot deadline is 11:34 AM. Since Evans plays Monday night, I could even wait until Monday 6:48 PM session — but no, Wan'Dale/Odunze lock at Sunday 1 PM. So the fallback options lock at 1 PM. Hence the 11:34 AM session is the last real pivot chance. But if news is already clear now (scratch report, downgrade), I should pivot now. If unclear, wait for 11:34. 3. Also check Maye (NE, 1 PM) — injury status null, fine. Nacua/Walker (LAR/KC?) — Walker is KC per data... interesting, Kenneth Walker on KC. Nacua LAR. LAR plays... not in 1 PM list, so later window. Bowers LV — Monday? Let me check the schedule to be sure. Actually, LV... The Monday 6:48 PM session covers Mon 8:15 kickoff — that's Evans vs WAS (SF@WAS presumably) and maybe Bowers if LV plays Monday. Let me check the schedule for week 6 to know exactly who plays when. Also, I should verify injuries for all my starters — the roster data shows injury_status for all players: only Evans is Questionable, Mason is IR. Everyone else null. So from the league data, all my starters are healthy. But I should cross-check late news via web search for the players in this window: - Woody Marks (HOU, 9:30 AM) — verify he's playing and starting. Montgomery doubtful per scratchpad. Any late scratch? - Also check Evans Saturday practice report (this was the key pivot input — "If Saturday's report goes dark, Wan'Dale takes WR2"). Let me also read the current lineup via get_my_team to confirm slots and locked flags. The roster in context is provided, but let me verify with the tool anyway. Actually the context's my_team is current. But a fresh get_my_team is prudent (the scratchpad lesson: "verify ids each session"). Plan: 1. get_league_state (quick glance) — maybe not needed; context has it. But cheap and safe. Actually, let me prioritize: get_my_team (verify lineup + injury status), get_nfl_schedule week 6 (kickoff times), search_web for Woody Marks news, search_web for Mike Evans Saturday practice report. Let me batch independent calls: - get_my_team (week 6) - get_nfl_schedule (week 6) - search_web "Woody Marks Texans week 6 injury status" - search_web "Mike Evans 49ers week 6 Saturday practice Achilles rib" Then based on results, decide. Also possibly player_research injuries for these players. The player_research kind "injuries" gives current injuries. Could help. Let me do that too in a second round maybe. Key decisions: A. Marks at RB2 — if he's fine, nothing to do; he's already in. If he's scratched (unlikely — no injury tag), I'd need a replacement... options: Allgeier to RB2 and then FLEX from bench (Worthy/Odunze/Wan'Dale/Schultz... but FLEX must be RB/WR/TE; if Marks is out, move Allgeier to RB2? No wait — Allgeier is FLEX; Marks is RB2. If Marks can't go: RB2 = Allgeier, FLEX = Wan'Dale or Odunze or Worthy or Schultz). But there's no indication Marks is hurt. Montgomery doubtful helps Marks' volume. Let me verify via web. B. Evans pivot — check Saturday report. If downgraded/Out/DNP with negative chatter → pivot Wan'Dale to WR2 now. If limited or no news → keep Evans and defer final call to 11:34 session. Let me also check Schultz (bench TE, HOU 9:30 game) — he's on bench, doesn't matter unless Bowers is out. Bowers' status is null (healthy). Fine. C. Also verify Maye (NE 1 PM vs NYJ) — healthy per data. The 11:34 AM session will cover the 1 PM window anyway. This session's window is the 9:30 AM London game (JAX/HOU). So really the only starter affected by this window is Woody Marks (and bench Schultz). D. The waiver priority #1 is held — no adds planned unless emergency. If Marks were out, I could consider a free agent RB — but that's drastic; better to reshuffle with Allgeier (ARI plays later window presumably) and promote a bench piece to FLEX. Let me start with the tool calls. Round 1 (independent): - get_my_team(week=6) - get_nfl_schedule(week=6) - search_web("Woody Marks Texans Jaguars London week 6 injury") - search_web("Mike Evans 49ers week 6 injury Achilles rib questionable Saturday") Also maybe search "Texans Jaguars week 6 inactives" — inactives come out ~90 min before kickoff; it's 8:06 AM, kickoff 9:30 AM, so inactives ~8:00 AM — might be just coming out now! Let me search for that specifically: "Texans Jaguars week 6 inactives" — good idea since the window is imminent. Let me batch these. Then round 2 based on findings: maybe player_research injuries for Marks/Evans, or get_player_stats. Then decide, maybe set_lineup (if pivot needed), write scratchpad update, write_decision_log. One more thing: the scheduled sessions list shows lineup checks at 11:34 AM, 2:39 PM, 6:54 PM Sunday, and Monday 6:48 PM. This 8:06 AM session is presumably the "lineup check 90 minutes before the 9:30 AM window" (9:30 - 90 min = 8:00 AM). So this is the London-game window check. My job: confirm starters in this window (Marks, and bench Schultz), plus check Evans news opportunistically. Wait — the scheduled_sessions only shows sessions for "every game window you have a player in". The 8:00-ish session for the 9:30 window isn't listed... Actually the league_sessions_for_me list starts with 11:34 AM. Hmm, but this current session at 8:06 AM is running now — maybe it's this very session being executed (the note lists future sessions, and this one is running now). Either way, I'm here now; do the work. Let me make the calls. Actually, also worth double-checking: is Marks starting over Montgomery? Scratchpad said "HOU Monty Doubtful". Let me verify via search and/or player stats. Montgomery's player id — I don't know it. I can search_players for "Montgomery" to check his status, but not critical since Marks is my player regardless. Marks' status is the key. Also — check Wan'Dale's Saturday news? Scratchpad: "if Saturday's report goes dark, Wan'Dale takes WR2" — that's about Evans. Wan'Dale himself is healthy (no tag). Also the pivot math: keep Evans WR2 vs pivot Wan'Dale. Break-even p=70%. Rule: pivot if Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or scratch report by Sun AM. Otherwise keep. Also consider: if Evans plays, he plays Monday night — I can still bench him Monday 6:48 PM session if he's ruled out then? No wait — benching him Monday evening is fine (he hasn't locked until MNF kickoff), but then WR2 would be EMPTY because all my bench WRs (Wan'Dale, Odunze, Worthy) would have locked at their Sunday kickoffs. So if I keep Evans and he's a Monday scratch, WR2 = 0. That's the risk. The break-even p=70% accounts for that: E[Evans] = p*16.3 vs Wan'Dale 11.44 → p > 0.70 favors Evans. Hmm, but actually there's a subtlety: if Evans is inactive Monday (declared ~6:45 PM Monday), I could at the Monday 6:48 PM session... no, inactives come out ~90 min before 8:15 PM = ~6:45 PM, and my Monday session is 6:48 PM — cutting it extremely close, and all fallback WRs are locked by then anyway. So the decision really is Sunday by 1 PM. Actually wait — could I pivot Sunday if Saturday's report is bad? Yes, that's the rule. Today's searches will inform. Let me also remember the Sunday 11:34 AM session is "the TRUE pivot deadline" — so if news is ambiguous now, I can defer. But it's better to gather news now. Let me do the calls now. Round 1: 1. get_my_team(week=6) — verify current lineup, injury flags, locked flags. 2. get_nfl_schedule(week=6) — confirm kickoffs (which of my players are in the 9:30 window; when does ARI/LAR/KC/PIT/DAL play). 3. search_web("Woody Marks Texans injury week 6") — Marks status. 4. search_web("Mike Evans 49ers Saturday practice Achilles rib week 6") — Evans Sat report. 5. search_web("Texans Jaguars week 6 inactives London") — inactives for the London game (should be out around now). That's five independent calls. Let me make them all at once.

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Key findings so far: 1. **Woody Marks (RB2, HOU @ JAX, 9:30 AM)**: David Montgomery (groin) officially ruled OUT, didn't make the trip to London. "Woody Marks will start in his place" — ESPN. "backup Woody Marks will see the lion's share of the touches." Marks is healthy (no injury tag). One caveat: "The Jaguars are an extremely tough matchup to run on, having allowed a league-low 42 RB rushing yards per game." But Marks starting with lion's share of touches = my RB2 is fine. No need to change. His projection is 13.3. 2. **Mike Evans (WR2, SF vs WAS, MNF)**: The news is concerning. He missed practice Thursday AND Friday with rib + Achilles soreness. Matt Maiocco believes he'll be ready to play despite concerns. Key question: did he practice Saturday? My pivot rule: "PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans (MNF extra day, ironman rep, no downgrade)." The search results show DNP Thursday and Friday. I need Saturday's report specifically. The heavy.com article (15 hours ago) says he's been out Thursday and Friday, and Maiocco believes he'll play. Did he practice Saturday? Let me search more specifically for Saturday practice. Let me also search for whether he practiced Saturday. Query: "Mike Evans Saturday practice 49ers week 6" or "49ers Saturday injury report week 6 Evans". Also, the Yahoo live updates article from 7 minutes ago says inactives are announced for Texans-Jaguars. The Jags inactives article mentions Montaric Brown won't suit up. I should check the Texans inactives list to confirm Marks is active. The Yahoo live blog says each team announced inactives — let me search for the Texans' inactive list specifically to confirm Marks is active. The ESPN fantasy article (14 hours ago) says "Woody Marks will start in his place" — that's an expectation. Let me get confirmation from the live inactives. Searches to run: 1. "Texans week 6 inactives list Woody Marks" — confirm Marks active. 2. "Mike Evans 49ers Saturday practice" — the key Evans input. Also maybe check Wan'Dale Robinson status (TEN @ IND 1 PM) — he's healthy per league data (no tag). And Odunze (CHI @ ATL 1 PM) — healthy. Maye healthy. Those are 1 PM games and covered by the 11:34 session anyway. But the Evans pivot decision needs to be made by 11:34 (really by 1 PM). This session ends at 9:30 AM. If I decide to keep Evans, the 11:34 session will make the final call. If I decide to pivot now, I can act now. The pivot decision hinges on Saturday's report. Let me search for that specifically. If Evans was a full participant Saturday, keep. If DNP Saturday → pivot to Wan'Dale (per rule: Sat DNP + negative chatter → pivot). If limited → keep Evans. Let me run these two searches now. Also, let me check Maiocco's prediction more closely — the heavy.com article is the most recent (15 hours ago, so published Saturday morning). Let me search for the latest on Evans Sunday morning. Additional searches: - "Mike Evans Sunday week 6 status Commanders" - "49ers injury report Saturday week 6" Let me batch: 1. search_web "Texans inactives week 6 Woody Marks active London" 2. search_web "49ers Mike Evans practice Saturday week 6 Commanders status" Both independent. Run together.

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Key updates: **Marks:** ESPN (14h ago): "Woody Marks will start in his place." CBS notes he didn't practice Wed/Thu but got in a limited session Friday — "It sounds like Marks is going to try to take the field, though his final status probably won't be shared until the Texans release their list of inactives about 90 minutes prior to the 4:25 p.m." — hmm, that CBS snippet says "4:25 p.m." which seems off for the 9:30 AM London game, might be from a different week context. The league tool still shows him Active with no injury status, kickoff 9:30 AM. ESPN says he will start. The Texans' inactives list should be out ~8:00 AM ET (90 min before 9:30). The Yahoo live blog said inactives were announced ("With less than 90 minutes remaining... each team has announced its inactives") — published 7 minutes ago. I should check one more search specifically for Marks on the inactives list. The snippet from blackandteal mentioned Jags inactives (Brown won't suit up). Let me search "Texans inactives" specifically. Actually my search "Texans inactives list week 6 London Woody Marks active" returned the Yahoo live blog saying inactives were announced — but no direct list content for the Texans side. Let me search again more specifically. **Evans:** Three straight DNPs (Thu, Fri, AND Saturday per SF Chronicle 12h ago: "non-participant in practice for a third straight day"), Bosa ruled out, Evans officially listed Questionable (per NBC Bay Area headline: "Nick Bosa out, Mike Evans questionable to play"). My scratchpad pivot rule: "PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans." Saturday's report: Evans DNP for a third straight day. That's the "Sat DNP" trigger. Was there "negative chatter"? The heavy.com piece says Maiocco believes Evans will be ready to play despite the concerns — mildly positive. The FOX Sports piece: "Impact Evans was spotted working..." — probably "working on the side field" again. Hmm. He's Questionable, NOT downgraded to Doubtful/Out. My rule: PIVOT if "Sat DNP + negative chatter". Saturday DNP is confirmed. Is the chatter negative? Maiocco (insider) believes he'll play — that's positive-leaning. The official designation is Questionable, not Doubtful. My break-even was p=70%: Evans 16.58 (league proj; scratchpad says 16.3) vs Wan'Dale 11.09. Considerations for keeping Evans: 1. MNF game — inactives come out Monday ~6:45 PM. My fallback plan: if Evans is OUT Monday, I get a zero at WR2. Wait — can I pivot Monday? Wan'Dale locks at 1 PM Sunday (his kickoff). So after Sunday, Wan'Dale can't be moved into WR2. My Monday 6:48 PM session — "too late to pivot; Evans inactives ~6:45p Mon" per scratchpad. So the TRUE pivot deadline is the 11:34 AM session today, when Wan'Dale still could be swapped in... wait, no: Wan'Dale's game starts at 1 PM Sunday. Can set_lineup swap him into WR2 before 1 PM Sunday — yes. After 1 PM, Wan'Dale locks. Evans locks Monday 8:15 PM. So my options: - **Keep Evans WR2** (current): If he plays, expected ~16.3 (full-ish projection discounted by injury?) — he's played through the rib fracture the last two weeks: 12.6 and 26.3 points. If he's inactive Monday, WR2 = 0 and I can't replace him. - **Pivot to Wan'Dale now** (by 1 PM Sunday): guaranteed ~11.09 floor, no risk of zero. Break-even math: p_threshold = fallback_proj / starter_proj = 11.09/16.58 ≈ 67% (or 11.44/16.3 ≈ 70% per scratchpad). So I should pivot if P(Evans plays and produces near projection) < ~67%. Evidence on P(Evans plays): - Three straight DNPs (Thu, Fri, Sat) — for a Monday night game. - Designation: Questionable (NOT Doubtful). For MNF games, teams often don't practice much anyway — wait, they did have practices Thu/Fri/Sat and he missed all three. - He's an ironman rep: has played through the rib fracture for two weeks already (12.6 and 26.3 points — 26.3 last week!). He's known for never missing games (real-world Mike Evans: famously never missed a game his first ~9 seasons; in this league he's played wks 4-5 through the rib). - Insider Maiocco predicts he'll play. - "Seen on the side field during..." — doing rehab/side work, typical of a vet who will suit up. Hmm, this is a genuinely close call. Three straight DNPs but Q designation + insider predicting play + ironman history + the extra day for MNF. My scratchpad rule says pivot if "Sat DNP + negative chatter." Is the chatter negative? SF Chronicle headline "misses practice again; Nick Bosa ruled out" — the mention of Bosa being ruled out shows they do rule players out; they did NOT rule Evans out. Being Questionable on a MNF game with an extra day, plus the team keeping him at Q (not downgrading), plus insider optimism... Actually, let me reconsider the break-even more carefully. The p=70% threshold is "probability he plays and scores ~full projection." But even if he plays, with 0 practices all week, might he be limited? On the other hand, he scored 26.3 last week playing through the rib. The Achilles soreness is new though. DNPs with Achilles issues are concerning for soft-tissue risk. Let me think about the matchup context: I'm playing Second Overall (4-1). My card ~141.7 projected vs their ~130.3. It's a competitive matchup where I need every point. A zero at WR2 would be a massive blow; Evans' ceiling (26.3 last week!) is a huge swing. Let me weigh: - P(Evans plays): Q designation + MNF extra day + ironman + insider says plays + team didn't downgrade → I'd estimate ~75-80% he plays. - If he plays, does he produce near 16.3? He's produced 12.6 and 26.3 through the rib already. If the Achilles truly limits him, he could be pulled or limited. Say conditional expectation if plays ≈ 14-16. - EV(Evans) ≈ 0.77 × 15 ≈ 11.6 vs Wan'Dale ≈ 11.09 (his projection; note Wan'Dale's projection is also uncertain — TEN @ IND, 11.09). That's razor thin. The problem: the variance matters more than the mean here. With a Q/MNF player, the downside case (scratch) gives 0; upside case gives ~16-26. The mean EV slightly favors Evans at 75-80% play probability. If P(play) is only 65%, EV(Evans) ≈ 9.8 < Wan'Dale 11.09. Additional wrinkle: If I keep Evans and he's scratched Monday, I also have Odunze... wait no, Odunze also plays Sunday 1 PM. All my bench WRs (Wan'Dale, Odunze, Worthy) play before Monday night EXCEPT... let me check: Wan'Dale 1:00 PM Sun, Odunze 1:00 PM Sun, Worthy 4:25 PM Sun. So by Monday 6:45 PM inactives, everyone else is locked and any benching decision is dead. Correct — the only pivot chance is NOW (or by 11:34 AM session; actually Wan'Dale/Odunze lock at 1 PM, Worthy at 4:25 PM). Hmm, one more consideration: Should I pivot to Odunze instead of Wan'Dale? Projections: Wan'Dale 11.09, Odunze 9.7. Wan'Dale is the higher-projection fallback and my scratchpad designates him "THE EVANS INSURANCE." Wan'Dale has been solid: 51.7 season points over 5 games (10.3/game). Odunze 42.3 (8.5/game) with Caleb Williams questionable! From the CBS headline: "Caleb Williams questionable" — that's the Bears QB. My scratchpad said "Caleb full pra Wed+Thu, on track → floor real" but the CBS piece lists him as questionable. That further favors Wan'Dale as the pivot. Wan'Dale plays TEN @ IND. So the decision: Evans vs Wan'Dale for WR2. Let me re-read my scratchpad pivot rule one more time: "PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 (Allgeier stays FLEX) if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans (MNF extra day, ironman rep, no downgrade)." Sat report is out now: Evans = third straight DNP but Questionable (not Doubtful). The question is "negative chatter." Let me assess the chatter: - SF Chronicle (12h ago): "non-participant for a third straight day" — neutral-negative. - Heavy (15h ago): Maiocco believes he'll be ready to play — positive. - NBC Bay Area (14h ago): "seen on the side field during..." — neutral; side-field work Friday was already known. - FOX (13h ago): "Evans was spotted working..." — likely side work again Saturday. Hmm — "spotted working" on Saturday while officially DNP... team drills vs side work. If he was spotted working Saturday, that's not dark-news. Let me do one more targeted search on Evans Saturday specifically to see if there's a designation article ("Bosa out, Evans questionable") — I have that from NBC Bay Area. The designation is Q. So per my rule: NOT Doubtful/Out, DNP yes, chatter mixed-to-mildly-positive (Maiocco predicts play), no scratch report by Sun am (he's MNF — inactives come Monday ~6:45 PM, so no scratch report possible before my decision). My rule's "Sat DNP + negative chatter" — I'd say chatter is not clearly negative. Maiocco — the most plugged-in 49ers reporter — predicts he plays. The team left him Questionable rather than Doubtful even after three DNPs, which for a MNF game signals they expect him to try to play (they could have ruled him Doubtful like Bosa got Out). Additional reasoning: MNF inactives come out ~6:45 PM Monday. My Monday 6:48 PM session is right at that moment — too late to pivot (bench locked). So the keep-Evans decision truly bets on the Q. EV estimate: - P(plays) ≈ 75% (Q after 3 DNPs + ironman rep + insider optimism; but Achilles new issue knocks it down from typical 90% for Q tags) - If plays, E[pts] ≈ 15 (he's been producing 12.6 and 26.3 through the rib; some Achilles discount) - EV ≈ 11.3 vs Wan'Dale 11.09. Slightly ahead. But honestly within noise. The tiebreaker considerations: 1. **Upside vs a 4-1 team.** My matchup is against Second Overall, a strong team (~130 projected). I'm 3-2, fighting to stay in playoff position. Week 6 isn't desperation, but winning a coin-flip matchup often comes down to ceiling. Evans' ceiling (26.3 last week, 16.58 projected) beats Wan'Dale's ceiling (~11-13). In a projected ~141 vs ~130 matchup where I'm favored, does floor or ceiling matter more? I'm the favorite by projection — but projections have noise ±15. Honestly, maximizing median points is the right approach; EV comparison above says Evans EV ≈ Wan'Dale EV, slightly ahead. 2. **Ironman precedent.** He's played through the rib fracture for two straight weeks producing 12.6 and 26.3. The Achilles soreness is new (added Thursday), but he did side work Friday and was "spotted working" (presumably Saturday per FOX). Shanahan holding a vet out of practice but leaving him Q for MNF is a classic "he'll play" pattern. 3. **The scratch risk is real but priced.** 25% chance of a zero at WR2. That costs ~16 points in expectation... wait: EV already accounts for it: 0.75 × 15 = 11.25. The risk: if he scratches, I lose the WR2 slot entirely — in a tight matchup vs a 4-1 team, a 16-point hole is likely decisive. But if he plays at ~15-16, I gain ~5 over Wan'Dale, which could also matter. Hmm. Let me also reconsider: is there any way to hedge? No — only one WR2 slot. Bench Wan'Dale plays regardless. Can't hedge. Let me think about what P(play) really is. Historical base rates: Q tags play ~80-85% typically. MNF with 3 DNPs is worse. But: the 49ers played week 5 and Evans played through the rib; DNPs Thu/Fri/Sat with Saturday being the last practice before MNF... For a typical vet, Q + 3 DNPs + MNF ≈ 65-70% play probability. Insider predicting play bumps it: Maiocco is usually right about 49ers availability. Say 70-75%. Conditional EV if he plays: he was full-go-less all week but still got 26.3 last week WITH the rib (though that was pre-Achilles). The Achilles could sap him a bit or he could leave early. E[pts | plays] ≈ 14. EV ≈ 0.725 × 14 ≈ 10.2 < 11.09. Hmm, now it's below Wan'Dale. The estimate swings on P(plays) and E[pts|plays] — genuinely uncertain parameters. Ranges: - P(plays): 0.65–0.80 - E[pts|plays]: 13–16.5 - EV range: 0.65×13 = 8.5 to 0.80×16.5 = 13.2. Midpoint ≈ 10.85 vs Wan'Dale 11.09. Dead even. Ugh. This is exactly the coin flip my board post described ("my own coin flips Monday night with antacids: if Saturday's report goes dark, Wan'Dale takes WR2 and I eat the math"). "IF SATURDAY'S REPORT GOES DARK, WAN'DALE TAKES WR2." — my own published rule. Did Saturday's report "go dark"? Saturday: third straight DNP, Bosa ruled out (not Evans), Evans listed Questionable (not downgraded), spotted working on the side, Maiocco predicts he plays. That's... mixed. Not "dark." Dark would have been Doubtful/Out or negative chatter. Maiocco predicting play is the opposite of dark. The team keeping him at Q rather than Doubtful after the final practice signals intent to play (teams usually downgrade doubtful-risk players by the last practice). Per my own published pivot rule — the rule I made when I was thinking clearly and without the sunk cost of having traded for Evans — the triggers are: (a) Doubtful/Out: NO, he's Q; (b) Sat DNP + negative chatter: DNP yes, chatter mixed-leaning-positive (Maiocco: "believes Evans will be ready to play"); (c) scratch report by Sun am: impossible for a MNF player (inactives Monday ~6:45 PM). → Keep Evans. Also the rule said "If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans (MNF extra day, ironman rep, no downgrade)." He wasn't limited (he was DNP with side work), so that branch doesn't apply directly, but the spirit — no downgrade + ironman + extra day — holds. One more thing to check: the scratchpad says Evans worked "on the side at Friday's practice." For Saturday, FOX says "spotted working..." — let me quickly verify with one more search whether Evans did side work Saturday and whether there's any Sunday-morning chatter. Also I should double check Wan'Dale's status (any injury? He shows Active, no tag, TEN @ IND 1 PM). And check that there's no issue with Maye (vs NYJ), Nacua (vs ARI), Bowers (vs BUF), Walker (vs LAC), Allgeier (@ LAR), PHI DST (vs CAR), Aubrey (@ GB, 8:20 PM Sun), Rodgers (bench), etc. The league report shows all clean except Evans Q. CBS headline mentioned "Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts out, Caleb Williams questionable" — none of those affect my starters. Jalen Hurts OUT — that's PHI QB, hurts my PHI DST? No wait — Hurts is Eagles QB; if Hurts is OUT, the Eagles offense is weaker, which slightly hurts PHI DST? No — DST depends on defense; Eagles offense being weaker means fewer scoring drives... actually it doesn't directly hurt the DST (sacks/turnovers by the defense). It might reduce team dominance slightly. Not a lineup change — PHI DST is still my best option and the alternatives aren't better. Hmm, wait: Hurts out means... PHI DST vs CAR, PHI is home. The DST projection 6.47 stands. No change; no better alternative on roster (no backup DST). Also check: Drake Maye vs NYJ — NE home 1 PM. Maye is healthy per report. Fine. Let me also double-check there's no late scratch on any of my Sunday starters (Marks 9:30 AM is the immediate one — ESPN 14h ago says he starts; Jags inactives released; let me confirm Marks not on Texans inactives). The Yahoo live blog (7 min ago) says inactives announced. My search results didn't show the actual Texans inactive list content. Let me do one more specific search. Actually — the first Yahoo live-updates link is exactly the inactives article. Its snippet: "With less than 90 minutes remaining until the Texans and Jaguars kick off, each team has announced its inactives for Week 6 in London." Published 7 minutes ago (i.e., ~7:59 AM ET). Hmm, that timing says inactives already announced — but it's a live blog; the snippet just says they've announced. I need the actual list to confirm Marks active. Let me search "Texans inactive week 6 Montgomery Marks" or read the ESPN inactives piece. The ESPN fantasy piece (14h ago) said "Woody Marks will start in his place" — pretty definitive for start/sit purposes. But the CBS player page said "his final status probably won't be shared until the Texans release their list of inactives about 90 minutes prior" — that was about Marks himself?! Wait, re-read: "He didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday this week but got in a limited session Friday to give himself a chance of playing Sunday. It sounds like Marks is going to try to take the field, though his final status probably won't be shared until the Texans release their list of inactives about 90 minutes prior to the 4:25 p.m." — WHOA. "He didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday this week but got in a limited session Friday" — that's about WOODY MARKS, not Montgomery! Marks himself was limited Friday with some injury?! But my league roster shows Marks with injury_status: null (no tag). Hmm. The league report is authoritative for my lineup purposes — he's listed Active, no tag. But wait — CBS snippet "4:25 p.m." is odd; the London game is 9:30 AM ET. That CBS snippet might be stale/wrong context (maybe from a different week — CBS player pages mix recent news). "limited session Friday" — the Yahoo piece from 4 days ago said "4 players miss practice before Jaguars London trip" with training camp photo of Brooks/Montgomery/Marks — the 4 missing were probably Dell, Pitre, Montgomery + 1. CBS week-6 injury report lists Texans OUT: Dell, Pitre, Montgomery; Q: Ingram, To'oTo'o. Marks NOT listed there. So the CBS player-page snippet about "he didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday... limited Friday... inactives 90 minutes prior to 4:25" is probably about... hmm, it could be about Marks' own status. But the official CBS week-6 injury report (19h ago) doesn't list Marks at all. And my league shows him with NO injury status. ESPN says he starts. I'll treat Marks as playing, but I should verify via the actual inactives list — the search result "Texans vs. Jaguars live updates, inactives" (7 minutes ago) would have it. Let me do one more search to confirm Marks' presence on/absence from the inactives list. Priority: (1) Confirm Marks active (locks 9:30 AM, ~84 min away). (2) Final Evans read for the WR2 decision — though the pivot deadline is effectively 1 PM (Wan'Dale lock) with the 11:34 session as my last look; today's 8 AM session sets the stance. Actually wait — let me reconsider the pivot deadline question. Wan'Dale locks at HIS kickoff (1 PM ET Sunday). The 11:34 AM session is "TRUE pivot deadline" per my scratchpad. This 8:06 AM session is the Marks window. I could keep Evans now and pivot at 11:34 if news worsens... but no Evans news will arrive between now and 11:34 AM (49ers are MNF; no Sunday-morning news of consequence; Saturday practice was the last one). Actually, Sunday morning could bring "Evans will test pregame Monday" type reports — no, 49ers don't play today. Realistically nothing new on Evans until Monday. So whatever I decide now should be final; the 11:34 session will just re-confirm. Given that, should I make the Evans call now? The instruction for THIS session: "Games in this window start soon. Confirm your starters... Swap anyone who will not play." Marks is in this window. Evans is Monday — not in this window. But the practical question is whether to pre-emptively pivot Wan'Dale in before 1 PM. I can decide now and let the 11:34 session verify, or leave it. Hmm — but this session has the freshest Saturday-report read already in hand. The 11:34 session will see the same state (no new Evans news expected between 8 AM and 11:34 AM). Let me make the call now with clear reasoning: **Decision: Keep Evans at WR2, per my published pivot rule.** - Designation: Questionable (not Doubtful/Out) — trigger (a) not met. - Saturday report: DNP (third straight) BUT the team did NOT downgrade him even after the final practice, and Maiocco — the most-wired 49ers reporter — predicts he plays; Bosa was ruled Out, showing the team does rule players out when they're not playing. Chatter is not negative. Trigger (b) not met. - No scratch report possible before Sunday AM (MNF inactives Monday ~6:45 PM). Trigger (c) not met. - The ironman precedent: he produced 12.6 and 26.3 playing through the same rib fracture the past two weeks; the Achilles is soreness, not a structural injury report downgrade; extra day of rest with MNF. - EV math: P(play) ~70-75%, E[pts|play] ~14-16.5 → EV ~10-12.4, ≈ Wan'Dale's 11.09. Dead even on EV, so the tiebreakers decide: (i) my own pre-committed rule says keep; (ii) ceiling vs a 4-1 opponent (I'm projected ahead; but if projections regress to a coin flip, Evans' 26-point ceiling is the kind of variance that wins weeks — though a zero is the kind that loses them); (iii) I publicly posted the rule ("if Saturday's report goes dark, Wan'Dale takes WR2") — the report isn't dark, so consistency says keep; (iv) Wan'Dale's own floor is soft: 11.09 projection, TEN @ IND, and TEN is 1-4-ish (they beat... actually TEN won last week per DK piece? "the Texans defeated the Titans last week" — TEN lost). Wan'Dale season 51.7 over 5 = 10.34/game average. His 11.09 projection is about his norm. So the fallback isn't a guaranteed 11 — it's a ~10-11 expectation with its own variance. Counter-argument for pivoting: 3 DNPs is genuinely ominous for a WR with an Achilles issue. Soft-tissue + no practice + 33-year-old body... If he's a game-time decision who re-aggravates Monday pregame, I eat a zero with no recourse. But he has been a game-time-ish player for two weeks already and cashed both, including a 26.3. The "antacids" line I wrote — I knew this was the risk profile when I set the rule. Hmm, honestly, let me reconsider once more, because this is THE decision of the week and I want to get it right rather than just rationalize consistency. Points for pivot (Wan'Dale): - Third consecutive DNP. Vets who don't practice at all all week, especially with a NEW soft-tissue issue (Achilles), are at real scratch risk — historically Q-tag players who miss every practice play at a meaningfully lower rate than the Q-tag base (~70% vs ~85%?). I don't have exact numbers; let me search once for "Questionable missed all three practices play rate" — probably not fruitful. My estimate P(play) 0.65-0.75 stands. - Achilles at 33 (Evans' real-world age... this is a simulated 2026 Evans, whatever) is a late-week-aggravation risk. - Wan'Dale ~11 is a solid, safe 1 PM floor: high-volume slot receiver (TEN's slot guy), season 51.7 pts in 5 games (10.3/g). IND is a middling pass defense. His floor is maybe 6-7, not 0. Certainty has value in a matchup I project to WIN by ~11 points. If I'm up 141.7 vs 130.3 on paper, minimizing variance protects the win more than maximizing EV? Hmm — is that right? If my true win probability is ~55-60%, variance cuts both ways; but for a projected favorite, a lower-variance equivalent-EV choice does raise win probability slightly. EV(Evans) ≈ EV(Wan'Dale) roughly, but Evans' outcome distribution is bimodal: ~25% zero-ish, ~75% 13-26. Wan'Dale: roughly normal around 10-11. In a ~+11 projected matchup, the zero scenario (WR2=0 vs projected 16.58) would swing the margin by -16.6 → projected margin flips to -5. The upside scenario adds +5 → +16 margin. For a favorite, the symmetric-ish variance reduces win prob: win% at margin +11 with σ≈15 is ~77%; replacing a bimodal ±16 swing with a tight 11... this is getting too deep. Simple version: if EVs are equal, the favorite should take the lower-variance option. So actually the variance argument slightly FAVORS Wan'Dale if I believe EVs are equal. But if EV(Evans) is 11.5-13 vs Wan'Dale 11, Evans wins on both EV and... no. Let me just pin the numbers honestly: - P(Evans plays) — Q tag, MNF extra day, ironman 2-week precedent through rib, team kept him Q after final practice, insider predicts play, spotted doing side work (not in a boot): I'll say 0.75. This feels right; Maiocco's prediction is genuinely informative — he covers the team daily and said "believes Evans will be ready to play despite those concerns." - E[pts | plays]: Last two weeks through rib: 12.6, 26.3. Achilles soreness new; zero practice reps all week; MNF vs WAS. Say 14.5 (some discount from 16.58 projection). - EV(Evans) = 0.75 × 14.5 ≈ 10.9. - Wan'Dale: projection 11.09; season avg 10.34; slot volume. EV ≈ 10.5-11.1. Say 10.8. EVs are a wash: 10.9 vs 10.8. Within noise. Now the tiebreakers: 1. My published pre-commitment rule: report not dark → keep Evans. (Consistency and no-retcon is my public brand — "the coin flip stays published, odds and antacids included.") 2. Variance: as the projected favorite, lower variance (Wan'Dale) marginally better — BUT Wan'Dale isn't variance-free, and my real edge is ~11 projected points which is well within weekly noise (σ ~12-15 for team totals). The favorite-variance argument is weak at these margins; I'm not a true favorite. 3. Ceiling: in what's likely a competitive division-race season (3-2, tied with others), the EV-maximizing play at equal EV... ceiling doesn't dominate at equal EV. 4. The "regret" test: If I bench Evans and he goes 20+ on MNF (very plausible — he just did 26.3 through the same rib), I swapped away 9-15 points in a game I might lose by 3. If I start him and he scratches, I eat a 0 in the WR2 slot and probably lose a coin-flip game. Both regrets hurt. But the bench-Evans-who-balls regret is the classic fantasy mistake ("never bench your studs"), and the injury-report structure (Q, not downgraded, insider says plays) points to him playing. 5. One more angle — what would the 11:34 AM session see that I don't? Nothing on Evans. Its value is re-confirming Sunday-window starters. So the call is now or effectively never (well, 11:34 could still pivot if I'm wrong here, but there'll be no new info). I also want to double check one thing: Evans' rib — he "played through wks4-5: 12.6, 26.3" per scratchpad. Confirmed by the NBC piece: "Evans has played through injured ribs." Good. Also — was there any Sunday morning news on Evans (it's 8 AM Sunday)? The searches I ran: SF Chronicle 12h ago (Sat evening), FOX 13h, Heavy 15h, NBC Bay Area 14h. Nothing from this morning — nothing to find; 49ers don't play until Monday. Their final practice was Saturday; designation came Saturday. No further info will come until Monday ~6:45 PM. So the information set is closed. Fine. **Final: Keep Evans WR2, Wan'Dale stays benched. Allgeier stays FLEX.** This follows my published pivot rule; no trigger met. The 11:34 session will confirm the Evans stance one last time and catch any late Sunday-morning scratches among 1 PM starters. Now, Marks: Need to confirm he's on the Texans' active list. The ESPN piece says he starts; CBS's official injury report doesn't list him; the league shows no tag. The Yahoo live blog (7 min ago) announced inactives. Let me search once more for the actual Texans inactives list to be safe — Marks is my RB2, 9:30 AM kickoff, locks at 9:30. If he were inactive, I'd need to swap... into RB2: my bench RBs: none except... Rodgers (QB), Wan'Dale/Odunze/Worthy (WR), Schultz (TE). Mason is IR. So my only RBs are Walker, Marks, Allgeier. If Marks is out, RB2 would be... nobody! Allgeier is in FLEX — I'd move Allgeier to RB2 and put Wan'Dale/Odunze/Worthy in FLEX. That's the contingency. So confirming Marks matters a lot. Let me search the Texans' inactive list now. Also quickly consider: any chance Aubrey (@ GB SNF) or PHI DST issues — none reported; PHI vs CAR with Hurts out... wait, Hurts OUT — that's notable for the Eagles offense. Pickett/McKee or whoever starts at QB for PHI. For my PHI DST: doesn't matter much for defense scoring; if the Eagles offense sputters, the DST might face more snaps... marginal. PHI DST remains the play (no better option; my only DST). Note: CBS said "Jalen Hurts out" — that's week 6. OK. Maye vs NYJ: no injury noted anywhere; league says Active. Good — he's been hot (27.2, 39.5 last two weeks). One more check on the Texans inactives to confirm Marks. Also maybe grab "Caleb Williams" status only insofar as it affects Odunze (bench — irrelevant unless I need a FLEX pivot... I'm not pivoting FLEX; Allgeier starts). Skip. Search: "Texans inactives week 6" — do it now. Also maybe "Woody Marks inactive" — combine: "Houston Texans inactives week 6 Woody Marks" — I already did similar; the ESPN piece said he'll start. Let me try "Texans Jaguars inactives announced week 6" to get the actual list.

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