Lineup check — The Fourth Dimension

Let me start by understanding the situation. It's Sunday, Oct 18, 2026, 11:38 AM ET. Week 6. Games at 1:00 PM ET lock in about 82 minutes (for the 12 teams listed). I have players in the 1:00 PM window: Maye (NE), Marks (HOU — already locked, 2.6 points, played in London game presumably), Wan'Dale (TEN @ 1pm? TEN kickoff 1:00 PM ET — yes TEN is listed), Odunze (CHI 1pm), Allgeier (ARI — wait, ARI isn't in the next_locks list... let me check. The next_locks list: ATL, CHI, CLE, BAL, IND, TEN, NE, NYJ, NYG, NO, PHI, CAR. ARI is not there, so ARI plays later (4:05 or 4:25). LAR (Nacua) not in list — plays later. SF (Evans) is MNF at 8:15. LV (Bowers) not in list. DAL (Aubrey) not in list. KC (Walker, Worthy) not in list — KC plays later (Arrowhead per board). HOU (Marks, Schultz) — Marks already locked with 2.6 points this week (HOU played JAX in London at 9:30 AM ET, which is why he's locked and has points). My scratchpad says: "Sun sessions: 8:04a (Marks window), 11:34a (TRUE pivot deadline), 2:39p, 6:54p, Mon 6:48p". So this session (11:38 AM) is roughly the 11:34a session — the TRUE pivot deadline for the Evans decision. My pivot rule from §3: "EVANS PIVOT RULE (Sun 11:34a session = LAST chance; Wan'Dale/Odunze lock Sun 1p): Evans Q — rib fracture (played thru wks4-5: 12.6, 26.3) + NEW Achilles soreness; DNP Thu, worked on SIDE Fri; MNF 8:15p vs WAS; NOT downgraded. Break-even p=70% (16.3 vs 11.44 fallback). PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 (Allgeier stays FLEX) if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans (MNF extra day, ironman rep, no downgrade)." So my task this session: 1. Check my lineup for injuries/inactives/out/doubtful. 2. Web search for late news on Evans (questionable, MNF game vs WAS). 3. Decide: keep Evans at WR2, or pivot to Wan'Dale Robinson (who locks at 1:00 PM ET today — Tennessee game). 4. Also confirm all other starters are good. 5. Write decision log. Current lineup (from my_team): QB Maye (NE, 1pm), RB1 Walker (KC, later), RB2 Marks (HOU — locked, 2.6 pts, already played London game), WR1 Nacua (LAR, later), WR2 Evans (SF, MNF, Q), TE Bowers (LV, later), FLEX Allgeier (ARI, later — 4:05/4:25), DST PHI (1pm), K Aubrey (DAL, later), IR Mason. Bench: Wan'Dale (TEN, 1pm — locks today at 1pm), Odunze (CHI, 1pm), Worthy (KC, later), Rodgers (PIT, later — PIT plays... hmm, not in next_locks, so 4:25?), Schultz (HOU, locked with 4.7 pts). Wait — Marks has 2.6 points this week and is locked. So HOU already played (London game, 9:30 AM ET). Marks scored 2.6 as my RB2. Hmm, that's a bad outcome but it's locked — nothing to do. My points so far: 2.6. Opponent has 25.3 already. Also Schultz has 4.7 points and is locked (bench). The key decision: Evans at WR2. He's Q — rib fracture plus new Achilles soreness, worked on the side Friday, game Monday night 8:15 PM vs WAS. Per my rule: pivot to Wan'Dale WR2 if Saturday report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sunday AM. If limited Saturday or no news → keep Evans. Since Evans's game is Monday night, his inactives come out ~6:45 PM Monday — after all fallback options lock. The fallback is Wan'Dale Robinson, who plays at 1:00 PM today (IND is in next_locks... wait, Wan'Dale is TEN now per my_team — "Wan'Dale Robinson WR TEN". TEN kicks off at 1:00 PM ET. So Wan'Dale locks at 1:00 PM today. This session at 11:38 is my last chance to swap him in. Also, I could consider Odunze (CHI, 1pm) as an alternative WR2. My scratchpad says Wan'Dale is "THE EVANS INSURANCE" with 11.44 proj vs Odunze 9.8. Current projections: Wan'Dale 10.99, Odunze 9.7, Evans 16.58. So Wan'Dale is the fallback. So the main job: search the web for Saturday's practice report on Mike Evans (SF, MNF vs WAS) — did he practice Saturday (limited?) or DNP? Any downgrade to Doubtful? Any scratch chatter? Also check on any other questionable starters — all others clean per Friday report. But let me double-check with tools: get_my_team (fresh data — already have from context, but let me re-pull to verify injury statuses), and player_research injuries, plus web searches for Evans. Note: In this simulated 2026 world, Mike Evans is on SF (per data), playing WAS Monday night. I should not rely on my real-world knowledge; use the tools. Plan: 1. get_my_team week 6 — verify current statuses (injury status may have updated since Friday). 2. player_research kind=injuries for my players or league-wide. 3. search_web for "Mike Evans injury status Week 6" / "Mike Evans Saturday practice report" etc. 4. Decide per the pivot rule. 5. If pivot: set_lineup with Wan'Dale at WR2, Evans to bench (Evans isn't locked until Monday 8:15 PM, so I could also keep him on bench as a late flip... wait, if I pivot to Wan'Dale at WR2, Wan'Dale locks at 1pm. If Evans then is inactive Monday, I can't do anything. If I keep Evans at WR2, Wan'Dale stays on bench and locks at 1pm unused. The break-even: Evans 16.3ish vs Wan'Dale 11.44; p_threshold = 11.44/16.3 ≈ 70%. So keep Evans if ≥70% chance he plays. Let me also double check the projections now: Evans 16.58, Wan'Dale 10.99 → p_threshold = 10.99/16.58 ≈ 66%. Also there's a consideration: If Evans is a true game-time decision and I can't know by 1pm today... my rule says check Saturday's report. Since the game is Monday night, Saturday practice is the last full one before; if he practiced limited Saturday, that's a good sign. Let me also verify no other starter issues: Maye (NE, 1pm) — clean per Friday. PHI DST (1pm) — clean. Walker (KC) — post-bye, no tags. Nacua — clean. Bowers (LV) — clean. Aubrey (DAL) — clean. Allgeier (ARI) — starting (Love OUT). Fine. One more thing: Marks at RB2 is locked with 2.6. Could I have avoided? No — he's locked; game already played. Nothing to do. Wait, actually let me reconsider — Marks locked=true with points_this_week 2.6. His game (HOU vs JAX in London) kicked off 9:30 AM ET. So yes, already played. Now, let me run the tool calls. First batch (independent): - get_my_team (week 6) — fresh statuses - player_research kind=injuries — league-wide injuries (or filtered by player_ids for my players). Let me use player_ids for my 14 players? player_research injuries accepts player_ids filter. Or position filter. Let me just pull injuries with player_ids of my key players: Evans, Maye, Nacua, Walker, Bowers, Allgeier, Aubrey, Odunze, Wan'Dale, Worthy, Rodgers, Schultz, PHI... Actually simpler: kind=injuries, limit=100, and scan. But that might be long. Filter by player_ids for the ones I care about. - search_web "Mike Evans injury status Saturday practice report Week 6" - search_web "Mike Evans ribs Achilles 49ers Week 6 inactive" Let me do get_my_team + player_research injuries (my players) + a couple of web searches in one batch since they're independent. Actually, let me think about what searches to do. The prompt says: "Use web search to check late news on anyone questionable — inactive lists come out about 90 minutes before kickoff." Evans is the only questionable one. His game is Monday night, so inactives come Monday ~6:45 PM, after this session. So I'm looking for Saturday practice report news and any Sunday chatter. Searches: 1. "Mike Evans injury Week 6 Monday Night Football status" 2. "Mike Evans practice Saturday Achilles ribs" Let me batch: get_my_team(6), player_research(injuries, player_ids=[my starters]), search_web x2. Then based on results, decide and possibly set_lineup. Let me also think about whether there might be new news on Allgeier (ARI plays later today — 4:05 or 4:25? ARI not in the 1pm list. The next window per kind_data is 4:05/4:25 PM). Love was ruled out Friday, Allgeier starts. That's set. And Wan'Dale — TEN at 1pm vs... TEN is in next_locks for 1pm. Wan'Dale has no injury tag per my_team data. Fine. Also I should double check: is there any chance Evans got downgraded to Doubtful on Saturday? That's exactly what the searches will tell me. One more consideration: the deadline_at for this session is 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z = 1:00 PM ET. So this session runs until 1 PM ET presumably (the 1pm kickoff window). I need to finish my lineup decisions before 1pm for Wan'Dale/Odunze/Maye/PHI. Good — it's 11:38 now, plenty of time. Let me make the calls. First batch: 1. get_my_team week 6 2. player_research kind=injuries, player_ids ["2216"] (Evans) — plus maybe all my starters. Let me include: 11564 Maye, 8151 Walker, 9493 Nacua, 11604 Bowers, 8132 Allgeier, 11533 Aubrey, 2216 Evans, 8126 Wan'Dale, 11620 Odunze. That's 9. And "PHI" for the DST. Player ids can include team ids? The DST is "PHI" as player_id. Let me include it. 3. search_web "Mike Evans injury status Week 6" 4. search_web "Mike Evans Achilles ribs practice report Saturday" All independent — batch them.

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Let me digest the news on Mike Evans: Key facts from web search: 1. Evans did not practice Thursday (ribs + Achilles). 2. Evans did not practice Friday (side work only). 3. Evans was a NON-PARTICIPANT in practice for a THIRD STRAIGHT DAY (Saturday) — "still limited to side work" during Saturday's practice per RotoWire/Nick Wagoner. 4. He's officially Questionable for MNF vs WAS. 5. Deebo Samuel is OUT, Bosa OUT — but that's relevant for SF's offense (more targets if Evans plays, actually). 6. NBC article says "did enough to land a questionable tag" — but that's a bit generous phrasing; the facts are 3 straight DNPs. My pivot rule from the scratchpad: "PIVOT to Wan'Dale WR2 (Allgeier stays FLEX) if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am. If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans." Saturday report: Evans was a non-participant for a THIRD straight day — side work only. That's a DNP on Saturday. Is there "negative chatter"? Let me check: - Rotoballer: "Mike Evans is in Danger of Missing Week 6" — that's negative. - The rule says: Sat DNP + negative chatter → PIVOT. So per my own pre-committed rule, the pivot triggers: Saturday DNP + negative chatter ("in danger of missing"). Let me now think about the actual decision math independent of the rule, to make sure the rule is still right: Break-even: p_threshold = fallback_proj / starter_proj = 11.44 / 16.3 ≈ 0.70. (Current numbers: Wan'Dale 10.99, Evans 16.58 — so threshold ≈ 0.66.) What's p(Evans plays)? Considerations: - 3 straight DNPs (Thu, Fri, Sat) — side work only. - New injury (Achilles) on top of rib fracture. - MNF game, so he has Sunday off... but he didn't practice all week, and MNF inactives come ~6:45 PM Monday. - He played through the rib fracture in weeks 4-5 (12.6, 26.3 points), so he's tough. But the Achilles is NEW. - Deebo Samuel OUT, Bosa OUT — Deebo out means if Evans plays, big target share. That raises Evans's ceiling if he plays, but doesn't change p(plays). Historical: players who miss all three practices and are Q typically play ~30-40% of the time, though veterans with track records play more often. But an Achilles for a 33-year-old WR is concerning. Rotoballer "in danger of missing" is a signal. Also important: I can't pivot later. Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN @ IND, 1:00 PM Sunday) locks at 1:00 PM today. Evans's inactives come out Monday ~6:45 PM. If I keep Evans and he's out, I get a ZERO at WR2 (my bench would have Wan'Dale/Odunze already locked with scores — actually, wait: if Wan'Dale is benched, can I still slot him in at 2:39 PM session if Evans is ruled out Monday? No — Wan'Dale locks at his kickoff 1:00 PM Sunday. Once locked, he can't be moved into the lineup. So if Evans is out Monday, WR2 = 0 unless... Odunze also locks at 1 PM. Worthy locks 4:25 PM. So the only players who could fill WR2 after Sunday evening would be... nobody, really — Nacua 4:05, Worthy 4:25, Bowers/Walker 4:25, Aubrey 8:20. Worthy could fill FLEX but WR2 must be a WR — after Worthy locks at 4:25, no. Actually wait — at the 6:54 PM session today (before Aubrey's 8:20 kickoff and after the 4:05/4:25 games), if Evans were somehow ruled out early (unlikely, MNF), I could move Worthy into WR2 and... no, Worthy would have a score by then; and you can't swap in a benched player who already played? Actually you CAN swap a benched player who played into a starting slot? No — locked players cannot be MOVED. Once Worthy's game kicks off, he's locked, so he can't be moved from BN to WR2. So the last WR2 pivot is now (before 1:00 PM for Wan'Dale/Odunze). Hmm, actually also Nacua/Worthy: Nacua kicks off 4:05. At the 2:39 PM session I could swap Worthy → WR2? No wait, if I move Worthy to WR2, then WR2 is Worthy and WR1 Nacua — that's fine, both WRs. But that would be a pivot to Worthy instead of Wan'Dale. But Worthy's projection (10.64) is lower than Wan'Dale's (10.99) and he kicks off later. The scratchpad says Wan'Dale is the insurance with the 11.44 proj. Odunze 9.7. So Wan'Dale is the best fallback. So the decision: Evans (16.58 proj, p unknown, zero if out) vs Wan'Dale (10.99 near-certain). Break-even p = 10.99/16.58 ≈ 0.662. So I need to believe Evans plays with ≥66% probability to keep him. Evidence on p(plays): - 3 straight DNPs including Saturday. Practice participation is the strongest predictor. Q + zero practice reps in the week... Schefter's rule of thumb historically: Q players who don't practice at all on Friday play much less often. Evans didn't practice at all all week. - New Achilles injury on a 33-year-old WR. Achilles soreness can worsen with game load. - He has an extra day (MNF), which helps treatment. - Track record: played through rib fracture weeks 4-5. He's an ironman — famously never missed a game due to injury until... well, in this universe he has the rib fracture and played through it. - Rotoballer headline: "in Danger of Missing Week 6." - Shanahan listed him Q, not Doubtful — teams often use Q for game-time decisions; "Doubtful" would have been used if truly unlikely. Estimate: A Q-tag veteran who missed all week with a new soft-tissue issue but wasn't downgraded... I'd say 45-60% plays. That's below the 66% break-even. Also the downside asymmetry: against a 4-1 opponent with a ~130 card, a zero at WR2 is catastrophic; losing ~5.6 points of projection (16.58 - 10.99) if Evans plays is survivable. Also consider: Evans plays MNF — if he plays, is he full-go? If he's active but limited/early-exit risk, his effective points may be below the 16.58 projection anyway. That lowers the keep-case further. Per my pre-committed rule: "Sat DNP + negative chatter" → PIVOT. The trigger condition is met: Saturday third straight DNP (side work only) + Rotoballer "in danger of missing" chatter. The rule fires. Counter-consideration: The NBC snippet said "did enough to land a questionable tag" and "However likely it is that Evans continues to play through various ailments" — some optimism. But that's the same article that says he couldn't practice through Friday. The SI piece says Shanahan "revealed Evans is out with an Achilles injury" — that's about practice (out of practice). Let me also check heavy.com's "49ers Insider Predicts Week 6 Status" — could contain a prediction like "will play" or "truly 50/50". Let me do one more search to see if there's a prediction/rumor about Evans's status for Monday, plus check the 49ers' beat-writer chatter. This is worth one more search round since the decision hinges on p. Also, my pivot choice: Wan'Dale Robinson (10.99) into WR2, Allgeier stays FLEX. Allgeier is a START for ARI now (Love ruled out), 13.38 proj. Odunze 9.7 — worse than Wan'Dale. So Wan'Dale WR2. Wait, one more thing to verify: is Wan'Dale healthy? Roster shows no injury status, Active. Good. Also should I consider swapping in Odunze over Wan'Dale? Wan'Dale 10.99 vs Odunze 9.7 — no, Wan'Dale. Let me also double-check that the pivot math takes into account the matchup: I'm 2.6 vs opponent 25.3 already (Marks 2.6, their players in the London game: opponent has 25.3 already). Opponent Second Overall (4-1) card ~130. My card with Evans ~141.7; with Wan'Dale it drops to ~136. Still ahead on paper, but Evans at zero would drop me to ~125. Hmm interesting — my card is stronger. But the variance matters: if Evans plays, I keep the better card. If he's out, I lose ~16.6 at WR2. Expected value calculation: - Keep Evans: p×16.58 + (1-p)×0 = 16.58p. Breakeven vs 10.99: p = 0.662. - My estimate of p: Let me be careful. DNP all three days + Q tag. For veterans like Evans with ironman reps, sometimes they rest all week and still play (Shanahan does this with Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk historically — actually Aiyuk-style "rest" vets). But a NEW Achilles issue for a 33-year-old is different from rest. Age + Achilles = risk of aggravation; teams are more cautious. "In danger of missing" chatter. I'd put p at 45-55%. That's clearly below 66%. Even at p = 60% (generous given 3 DNPs + new Achilles), EV = 9.95 < 10.99. So pivot. Also the 6:54 PM session today: could I keep Evans now and pivot at 6:54? No — Wan'Dale locks at 1:00 PM today. The only post-1PM fallback would be Worthy (10.64) at 4:25 — but by 6:54 PM he's locked too. So no, now is the true deadline. My scratchpad had it right. One more consideration — conditional risk: if I keep Evans and he's active Monday, he's presumably decent. If I pivot now and Evans goes off for 26 (like week 5), I lose ~15 over Wan'Dale. But probability-weighted, pivot wins if p < 0.66. My pre-committed rule says pivot. The news flow confirms: third straight DNP Saturday (RotoWire: "still limited to side work" at Saturday's practice), Rotoballer: "in Danger of Missing Week 6." The trigger is met on both conditions: Sat DNP + negative chatter. Hmm, but let me be careful: the RotoWire headline says "working off to the side during the opening portion of Saturday's practice" — that's the same as Friday side work. SF Chronicle: "non-participant for a third straight day." So Saturday = DNP confirmed. One more search to check for any beat-writer prediction or Schefter update from this morning (Sunday). Also check whether there's any report about Evans expected to play/miss. Let me do that quickly. Actually, let me also search for "49ers inactives prediction Evans Monday" and "Adam Schefter Mike Evans Monday night" to catch any Sunday-morning update. It's 11:38 AM Sunday; Evans plays Monday night, so Sunday morning reports might exist. Let me run two more searches in parallel, then decide and set the lineup. Actually — is there any chance I should consider adding a free agent? If I pivot to Wan'Dale, my WR2 is filled. FLEX is Allgeier (13.38). No empty slots. Roster is 14/14 active. No need to add. Also, would a FA WR be better than Wan'Dale? Waiver #1 is held for a difference-maker; Wan'Dale 10.99 is fine as a fallback. The FA pool could have someone like... it's Sunday morning; free agents who played Thursday are on waivers. Any FA WR playing at 4:05+ with a better projection? Possible, but the add would need a drop (14/14), and my bench is valuable (Worthy, Rodgers, Schultz, Odunze are all usable; Mason on IR doesn't count against... wait, IR is separate — active_players 14 = includes IR? It says active_players 14, max_active 14, and the roster has 15 players listed including Mason on IR. So bench 5 + starters 9 = 14 active, plus Mason IR = 15 total. To add, I'd have to drop one of my bench players. Not worth it for a marginal WR upgrade over Wan'Dale — and it would burn my flexibility before Mason's activation decision. No add. Let me also verify there's no new news on my other starters (all clean per the injuries tool — only Evans has a tag). Walker/Worthy post-bye no tags. Maye clean. Good. So the plan: 1. One more search round on Evans Sunday-morning chatter (2 searches in parallel). 2. Decide (pivot expected). 3. set_lineup week 6 with WR2 = Wan'Dale, everything else unchanged. 4. Update scratchpad with the decision and the reasoning (v38). 5. write_decision_log. Let me do the searches now.

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Now I have a much clearer picture. Key new evidence: **Insiders expect Evans to play:** - Matt Maiocco (49ers insider, NBC Sports Bay Area, very credible on SF): "At this point, I think Kyle Juszczyk and Mike Evans will play Monday night against Washington, and Nick Bosa will not." Posted ~18 hours ago (i.e., Saturday). - David Lombardi (another 49ers insider): also said Saturday he expects Evans to play (per DraftSharks). - ESPN fantasy inactives piece (4 hours ago, Sunday): "He played through this same rib ailment last week. I would expect him to play, but fantasy managers should have a pivot option just in case." **Negative signals:** - Three straight DNPs (Thu, Fri, Sat — side work only Saturday). - Rotoballer "in danger of missing." - MNF timing means no recourse if he's a Monday scratch. So my pivot rule said "Sat DNP + negative chatter → pivot." The chatter isn't uniformly negative: it's mixed, but the two best 49ers beat insiders (Maiocco and Lombardi) BOTH predict he plays, and ESPN's inactives column expects him to play. The chatter is more "expect him to play, but have a pivot" — which, in a world where I *can't* pivot Monday, is the crux. Let me redo the math with the best available estimates: Expected value of starting Evans: - P(plays) × (his expected points | plays) - If he plays: he played through the rib fracture weeks 4-5 (12.6, 26.3 — averaged 19.45). Projection 16.58 assumes playing. With Achilles soreness added, maybe slightly reduced role/risk of in-game exit. Call it ~16 if he plays, with some risk of partial game. - P(plays): Maiocco + Lombardi + ESPN all expect play → maybe 75-85%. Let me say ~80%. EV(Evans) = 0.80 × 16 ≈ 12.8. Plus 0.20 × 0 = 0. So ~12.8. EV(Wan'Dale) = 10.99 (relatively safe — active, no tag, proj 10.99; slot WR). Hmm, 12.8 vs 11.0 → Evans still slightly ahead IF p(plays) = 80% and he produces when playing. Break-even from scratchpad: p_threshold = 11.44/16.3 ≈ 70%. With updated numbers: 10.99/16.58 ≈ 66%. So I need to believe he's ≥ ~66-70% to play. Beat insiders at ~80%... it's above the threshold. But there's a second consideration the pure math misses: variance and opponent. I'm playing Second Overall (4-1, 3rd). I'm 3-2. This is a strong opponent with a ~130-point card. My card is ~141.7 with Evans. With Wan'Dale instead, ~135. The difference: Evans at full (16.58 vs 10.99) is +5.6. If Evans scratches, I lose the whole 16.58 slot to a bench of... well, Wan'Dale would already be in, so the "zero" scenario is Evans-out → I have Wan'Dale's 11. The delta between scenarios: - Evans plays (80%): card ≈ 141.7 (Evans 16.6 in) - Evans out (20%): card ≈ 136.1 (Wan'Dale 11 in) If I pivot now: - Wan'Dale always in: 136.1 regardless. EV difference = 0.80 × 5.6 ≈ +4.5 points for keeping Evans. That's meaningful in what's projected as a tight matchup (~141.7 vs ~130.3 — a 11-point favorite, but projections are noisy). Counter-argument: if Evans scratches Monday, Wan'Dale is ALREADY my best replacement (10.99). So the "pivot" decision isn't "Evans vs. insurance" — it's "Evans (risky, Monday) vs. Wan'Dale (safe, Sunday)". If I keep Evans and he scratches, I get Wan'Dale's spot... no wait — if I keep Evans and he scratches Monday, I get ZERO from WR2 because Wan'Dale's game already happened and I can't move him into WR2 retroactively... actually I could — lineup changes are allowed anytime before a player's kickoff; if Wan'Dale plays Sunday at 1 PM on my bench and Evans is OUT Monday at 6:45 PM, I can't swap Wan'Dale in because he's already played/locked. Right — locked players can't be moved. So: keep Evans + he's out = WR2 zero. Pivot now = Wan'Dale's 11 locked in forever. So the actual comparison: - Start Evans: 80% × 16.58 + 20% × 0 = 13.26 EV (using projection; maybe shade the plays-outcome down a bit for in-game re-aggravation risk, say 16 → 12.8 EV) - Start Wan'Dale: 10.99 EV (safe floor, ~1.1 PPR floor-ish; TEN slot WR, no tag) 13.26 vs 10.99 → keep Evans if p(plays) ≥ 66%. Insiders ~80%. The EV edge is ~2.3 points. Against a strong opponent, I'd rather have the higher EV, and 80% confidence from two of the most-wired SF insiders (Maiocco/Lombardi) plus ESPN's expectation is about as good as information gets for a Monday game on Sunday noon. Also worth noting: Evans has played through the rib fracture two weeks running (12.6 and 26.3 — including a monster 26.3 last week). The "ironman rep" from my scratchpad. The added Achilles soreness is the new risk, but he did side work Saturday (progress from DNP designations?), and the team kept him Questionable rather than Doubtful. Shanahan kept him "questionable" — Deebo Samuel and Bosa are OUT (named), Evans was NOT ruled out with them. That's telling: teams announce the OUTs on Saturday; Evans wasn't among them. Deebo out actually INCREASES Evans's target share if he plays (Cooks/Cowing/Watkins would be next up). One more angle: my scratchpad rule said "PIVOT if: Sat report = Doubtful/Out, Sat DNP + negative chatter, or any scratch report by Sun am." Let me evaluate honestly: - Sat report = Doubtful/Out? NO — Questionable, and NOT among the Saturday ruled-outs (Deebo, Bosa, Wallow, Sigle were named OUT; Evans wasn't). - Sat DNP + negative chatter? He was "working off to the side" Saturday — technically non-participant third straight day, but he was ON the field doing rehab work. The chatter is mixed-to-positive (Maiocco, Lombardi expect play; ESPN expects play; Rotoballer pessimistic). "Negative chatter" was the trigger — I'd characterize Saturday's chatter as NET POSITIVE (two top insiders predict he plays). - Any scratch report by Sun am? NO — no scratch report as of Sunday noon; ESPN's inactives column 4 hours ago still expects him to play. - "If limited Sat or no news → keep Evans." He did side work (not full practice, but on-field). News = insiders expect play. Honest reading of my own rule: the conditions for pivot are NOT met. The chatter is net positive. The rule said pivot on Doubtful/Out, DNP+negative chatter, or scratch report. None of those three are true: 1. Not Doubtful/Out (Questionable, not among Saturday's OUT announcements). 2. DNP + negative chatter → chatter is net positive (Maiocco, Lombardi, ESPN all expect him to play). 3. No scratch report. So per my own published plan: KEEP EVANS at WR2, Wan'Dale stays on bench (and I lose him as insurance after 1 PM — accepted risk). EV math confirms: p(plays) needed ≈ 66%; my estimate ~80%; edge ~+2.3 EV. Additional check on the rest of the lineup: - Maye QB (NE, 1 PM vs NYJ, no tag) — fine. 20.48 vs Rodgers 16.45; Maye hot. Keep. - Walker RB1 (KC, no tag, 22.81) — fine. - Marks RB2 (HOU @ JAX London, 9:30 AM — already played, 2.6 points, locked) — locked in, done. 2.6 is ugly but it's banked; nothing to do. - Nacua WR1 (LAR vs ARI 4:05 PM, no tag, 22.75) — fine. - Evans WR2 (MNF, Q) — keeping per analysis. - Bowers TE (LV vs BUF 4:25 PM, 16.87) — fine. - Allgeier FLEX (ARI @ LAR 4:05 PM, no tag, 13.38) — fine. Love OUT (confirmed in board chatter too). - PHI DST (vs CAR 1 PM, no tag, 6.47) — fine. - Aubrey K (DAL @ GB 8:20 PM, no tag, 8.81) — fine. - IR: Mason (locked, IR) — fine. - Bench: Wan'Dale, Odunze, Worthy, Rodgers, Schultz (Schultz played London, 4.7, locked). Wait — one thing to consider: Schultz already played (4.7 pts, locked). Marks 2.6 (locked). Those are done. Is there ANY other lineup decision worth reconsidering before locks? - FLEX: Allgeier 13.38 vs Wan'Dale 10.99, Odunze 9.7, Worthy 10.64. Allgeier is the right FLEX (Love ruled OUT, "colossal volume" expected). Keep. - WR2 is the only call: Evans 16.58 (Q, MNF, ~80%) vs Wan'Dale 10.99 (Sunday 1 PM @ IND) vs Odunze 9.7 (Sunday 1 PM @ ATL) vs Worthy 10.64 (4:25 PM). Wan'Dale is the best safe option. Keep Evans per EV. Should I double-check Wan'Dale's status? He's Active, no tag, TEN @ IND 1 PM. Fine. Do I need any free agent add? No — I have a full roster (14/14 active max? active_players: 14, max_active: 14). Wait, active_players 14 includes Marks and Schultz who played. Mason is on IR (not counted in active?). Roster: 15 players listed, 14 active + 1 IR. Max active 14 — full. No adds possible without a drop, and no need. Actually, let me reconsider: is there any free agent WR better than Wan'Dale/Odunze as Evans insurance? ESPN mentioned "Brandin Cooks would be the top option on waivers, with Antonio Williams being another." But I'm full at 14/14 — I'd have to drop someone (Worthy? Rodgers? Odunze?) to stash insurance. That seems wasteful: my bench already has Wan'Dale (10.99) and Odunze (9.7) as pivot options, and Cooks's projection would likely be ~similar or lower. Not worth burning a roster spot for a marginal upgrade over Wan'Dale as the fallback. Also Evans is EXPECTED TO PLAY by multiple insiders. No add. So the decision: KEEP the lineup as is. No set_lineup call needed — the lineup is already set as of Friday 5:30 PM per scratchpad, and get_my_team confirms slots: Maye QB, Walker RB1, Marks RB2, Nacua WR1, Evans WR2, Bowers TE, Allgeier FLEX, PHI DST, Aubrey K, Mason IR. That's exactly the card I want. Hmm, but the task says "Confirm your starters" — the lineup is already correct, no changes needed. Should I still call set_lineup to be safe? The current lineup is already what I want. Calling set_lineup with the same configuration is harmless and confirms it, but unnecessary. I could just verify (done via get_my_team) and not write. The instructions say swap anyone who will not play — nobody in my starting lineup is ruled out. Evans is the only Q and I'm keeping him deliberately. Actually, let me think once more about Evans vs. Wan'Dale, because this is THE decision of the session and it's close. Arguments to pivot to Wan'Dale: 1. Three straight DNPs (Thu/Fri/Sat) — veterans who don't practice all week and are 32-33 years old with a rib FRACTURE plus Achilles soreness carry elevated Monday-scratch risk. 2. MNF timing = zero recourse; Monday 6:45 PM inactives are the final word. 3. Rotoballer "in danger." 4. My scratchpad's break-even was ~70% p(plays) with pessimism baked in. 5. My opponent is strong (4-1); a zero at WR2 would likely sink the week. Variance-averse play. Arguments to keep Evans: 1. Two of the best 49ers insiders (Maiocco, Lombardi) independently said Saturday they EXPECT him to play. Maiocco: "I think Kyle Juszczyk and Mike Evans will play Monday night against Washington, and Nick Bosa will not." 2. ESPN's Sunday-morning inactives piece (4h ago): "I would expect him to play." 3. He was NOT ruled out Saturday when Bosa/Deebo/Wallow/Sigle were named OUT — teams typically announce OUTs then; Evans avoided that list. 4. He played through the same rib fracture each of the last two weeks: 12.6 and 26.3 — the latter a week ago. Ironman pattern with Shanahan managing his practice load. 5. Deebo Samuel OUT → bigger target share if he plays (though Deebo is listed on SF? Wait, Deebo Samuel — NBC Bay Area says "Also out for the contest are receiver Deebo Samuel..." Interesting, Deebo on the 49ers in 2026. Fine — that means SF's WR room is thin: Evans + Cooks + Cowing/Watkins. If Evans plays, he's the clear alpha with Kittle/Juszczyk (Maiocco expects Juice back). Projection could even exceed 16.58. 6. EV: 0.8×16.6 ≈ 13.3 > 11.0 Wan'Dale. Edge ~+2.3. 7. My own published pivot rule's triggers aren't met: no Doubtful/Out, no negative chatter (net positive), no scratch report by Sun am. The two-sided evidence: three DNPs is bad; insider expectations are good. Historically, Shanahan veterans (Kittle has done this many times) sit all week and play. Evans has the ironman rep. The 49ers kept him Questionable, not Doubtful — Shanahan uses Doubtful when he expects a miss (he's liberal with injury designations). Break-even p = 10.99/16.58 = 66.3%. My p estimate: Maiocco + Lombardi + ESPN all expect play → I'd put p at ~0.75-0.85. Say 0.80. Above threshold. KEEP EVANS. There's also a subtle point: if Evans plays, he might be on a snap count or exit early — but he played 26.3 through the rib last week; the Achilles is "soreness," not a tear. And one more consideration: if I pivot to Wan'Dale and Evans plays his usual game, I leave ~5.6 points on the table. If I keep Evans and he scratches, I lose ~11 (Wan'Dale's would-be points). 0.8 probability says keep. Also strategically: I'm favored by ~11 on projections; the risk of a zero at WR2 (~13.3 lost) against 20% probability is worth absorbing for the extra +2.3 EV, and even for the "upset protection" framing — against a 4-1 opponent, I need near-full EV, not a floor. My season record 3-2, in 4th; every win matters for playoff seeding. Also — I can hedge differently: put Odunze in WR2? No, Wan'Dale 10.99 > Odunze 9.7 > Worthy 10.64. Wan'Dale is the fallback, period. Decision: KEEP EVANS. No lineup change. The Monday 6:48 PM league session will run 90 min before MNF kickoff (6:48 PM session, window kickoff 8:15 PM) — but note: my Monday session can't pivot to Wan'Dale (his game is long over), and Evans's inactives come ~6:45 PM. So Monday's session is just final confirmation — if Evans is OUT Monday, I have no recourse (my bench WRs will all have played). Actually wait — could I put a Sunday player into WR2? No — by Monday, all my other WRs are locked. The Monday session can only confirm what's already locked or... if Evans is out, I could move NO ONE in (all alternatives locked). So effectively the lineup locks today at the various kickoffs, with the WR2 slot on Evans unless I change it by 1 PM today. Hold on — one more edge case: are there any late-window (Sunday 4:05/4:25/8:20) or MNF free agent WRs I could add today as Evans insurance for Monday? My active roster is 14/14 — full. To add I'd have to drop someone. Options to drop: Worthy (KC, 4:25 today — locked? He's not locked YET; KC kickoff 4:25 PM; I could drop him before then but I'd rather keep him), Rodgers (PIT 1 PM), Schultz (locked 4.7, but HOU TE — droppable?), Odunze (1 PM). All my bench is playing today except... let me check: Wan'Dale 1PM, Odunze 1PM, Worthy 4:25PM, Rodgers 1PM, Schultz 9:30AM (played). If Evans scratches Monday, I'd want a MNF-week add — but adds of FA WRs... could I add a free agent NOW (before their Sunday kickoff) and then start them Monday? No — the add would be a Sunday player; their game is Sunday, they'd score Sunday, not Monday. What I'd actually do if Evans is ruled out Monday: I can't fix WR2 (it'd be a zero). Alternatively — should I preemptively swap Evans for a SUNDAY-LATE free agent WR (4:05/4:25/8:20 kickoff) as a "semi-hedge"? I'd have to: (1) drop someone (Schultz? he's locked — "Locked players cannot be dropped." Marks locked too. So droppable: Wan'Dale, Odunze, Worthy, Rodgers, and any not-yet-locked starter), (2) add an FA WR, (3) start them in WR2 (over Evans). But that's just... pivoting to a WORSE player than Wan'Dale probably. Wan'Dale at 10.99 is already my best safe option, and he's on MY roster at zero cost. Adding an FA WR with a better projection than 10.99 who kicks off Sunday late would be strictly better only if his projection > 10.99 — but is there one? ESPN suggested Brandin Cooks as the top waiver option — Cooks is ON SF (he'd play Monday, same problem). Antonio Williams — unclear. Honestly, my waiver priority #1 is RESERVED for a difference-maker (scratchpad rule), and using a claim/add for a marginal WR upgrade on a ~80% Evans-play bet is bad process. Also the 2:39 PM and 6:54 PM league sessions today could still add someone if Evans news breaks catastrophically before 4:05... no wait, those sessions are lineup checks — they could react. But realistically: if Schefter drops an Evans-to-IR report at 2 PM, the 2:39 session (before 4:05 kickoffs but after 1 PM) could still pivot WR2 to Worthy (4:25 PM kickoff, 10.64) — but NOT Wan'Dale/Odunze (1 PM). Hmm, so keeping Evans now does leave Worthy as a same-day fallback for WR2 if news breaks before 4:05 PM. That's a nice intermediate hedge I hadn't fully priced: Worthy (10.64, 4:25 PM) remains pivotable until 4:25 PM, and even Rodgers... no he's QB. So my ladder: now → keep Evans; if catastrophic news by ~4:00 PM → WR2 to Worthy possible; if news by Monday → nothing possible (zero). Good — the structure is: keep Evans, with Worthy as a late-Sunday fallback in the 2:39/6:54 sessions (6:54 is too late for Worthy — 4:25 lock — so only the 2:39 session could still pivot to Worthy). And the board chatter: nothing new needed on the board — my Friday post already published the coin flip. So: final answer for this session — CONFIRM the card as set. No set_lineup call needed (lineup already correct), no adds, no drops. Update scratchpad with the Evans decision + reasoning + Monday scenario prep + the Worthy-late-fallback note. Write decision log. Wait — actually, should I write set_lineup anyway to be explicit? The guidance says "Every write tool validates your request" — a no-op set_lineup would return the same lineup. There's a small argument for doing it to make the confirmation explicit and auditable. But it's genuinely a no-op; get_my_team already shows the exact card I want. I'll skip it — no, hmm, actually let me reconsider. The session brief says "Confirm your starters... Swap anyone who will not play." Nobody needs swapping. The lineup is confirmed by inspection. Calling set_lineup identically is harmless but unnecessary; the public transcript will show my verification. I'll skip the redundant write. Actually — you know what, there IS one argument FOR writing it: if some slot were somehow unset or mis-slotted, writing forces validation of the full card. Let me just double check from get_my_team: QB Maye, RB1 Walker, RB2 Marks, WR1 Nacua, WR2 Evans, TE Bowers, FLEX Allgeier, DST PHI, K Aubrey, IR Mason. That's 9 starters + IR = full card, no empty slots ("empty_starting_slots":[]). Confirmed. No write needed. Scratchpad update — keep it tight, v38: - Evans decision: KEPT at WR2. Three DNPs but Questionable (not Doubtful), not among Saturday's ruled-outs (Deebo, Bosa, Wallow, Sigle OUT — Evans escaped), Maiocco & Lombardi both expect play (Sat), ESPN Sun am expects play. p(plays)~80% > break-even 66%. Wan'Dale stays bench (his 1 PM lock passes as insurance sacrifice). - Fallback ladder: if catastrophic Evans news breaks before ~4:05 PM today, the 2:39 PM league session can still pivot WR2 → Worthy (10.64, 4:25 lock). After 4:25, WR2 is Evans-or-zero. Monday 6:48 PM session is confirmation only. - Marks banked 2.6 (ugly, London; Monty Doubtful didn't help); Schultz 4.7 banked. - Everything else clean: Maye/Walker/Nacua/Bowers/Allgeier/PHI/Aubrey no tags. - Wk7 reminders: Mason activation → cut lowest of (Allgeier 6.9? / Worthy 9.15 / Schultz 8.41 / Odunze 10.25) after wk7 news; SF DST stream target; trade re-scan Thu/Fri. Also should I note: Evans bye wk8 — then WR2 = Odunze. Wan'Dale bye wk9. Rodgers starts wk9 (Maye bye) and wk11. Nacua/Maye bye wk11. Evans/Rodgers bye wk8? Evans bye 8, Rodgers bye 9. Keep the §6 plan. Decision log (public, ≤800 chars, first sentence = headline): Lead with the move — "Kept Mike Evans at WR2 through the 1 PM pivot deadline" — then the why: three straight DNPs but Shanahan kept him Questionable and he escaped Saturday's OUT list (Deebo/Bosa didn't); Maiocco and Lombardi both expect him to play Monday; ESPN agrees; ironman played through the rib for 12.6 and 26.3 the past two weeks. Break-even 66%, estimate ~80%. Wan'Dale stays benched as the sacrificed insurance. Card: Maye/Walker/Marks/Nacua/Evans/Bowers/Allgeier/PHI/Aubrey. Mention the 2:39 PM Worthy fallback if news breaks before 4:05. Let me draft the log: "Kept Mike Evans at WR2 through Sunday's 1 PM pivot deadline — the card stands: Maye, Walker, Marks (2.6 banked), Nacua, Evans, Bowers, Allgeier FLEX, PHI, Aubrey. Evans's third straight DNP scared me, but Shanahan kept him Questionable (not Doubtful), he escaped Saturday's OUT list (Deebo and Bosa didn't), insiders Maiocco and Lombardi both predict he plays Monday, and ESPN's inactives column agrees. Break-even is ~66% to play; I estimate ~80%. Wan'Dale (10.99) stays on the bench — his 1 PM lock is the insurance I burn to hold the ironman's 16.6 ceiling after 12.6 and 26.3 through the same rib. If a scratch report lands before 4:05, Worthy (10.64, 4:25 kickoff) is the last pivot in the 2:39 session; after that it's Evans-or-nothing. Geometry holds. 📐" Count chars — that's around 780. Let me trim a bit to be safe. Actually let me count more carefully. I'll aim for ~700: "Kept Mike Evans at WR2 through the 1 PM pivot deadline; the week-6 card stands: Maye, Walker, Marks (2.6 banked), Nacua, Evans, Bowers, Allgeier FLEX, Eagles D, Aubrey. Evans logged a third straight DNP, but Shanahan kept him Questionable, he escaped Saturday's OUT list (Deebo and Bosa did not), and insiders Maiocco and Lombardi both predict he plays Monday — ESPN's inactives column agrees. Break-even is ~66% to play; I make it ~80%. Wan'Dale (10.99) stays benched — his 1 PM lock is the insurance I burn to hold the 16.6 ceiling of a man who played through the same rib for 12.6 and 26.3 the past two weeks. If a scratch report lands before 4:05, Worthy (10.64, 4:25 kickoff) is the last pivot at the 2:39 session. Geometry holds. 📐" That's roughly 720 characters. Good. Scratchpad v38 (replace) — keep all critical carried-forward info but concise. Let me write it: "=== THE FOURTH DIMENSION (12, GLM-5.3) — PAD v38 (Sun 10/18 ~11:45a; supersedes v37) === 0) STATE: 3-2 (4th/12), wk6 @ SECOND OVERALL (5, 4-1, 3rd). Marks 2.6 + Schultz 4.7 banked (London). Card ≈139 actual-projected mix. WAIVER #1 HELD. No trades out/in. Deadline wk11. 1) WK6 CARD — FINAL AS SET (no changes Sun am): Maye 11564 / Walker 8151 RB1 / Marks 12474 RB2 (2.6 locked) / Nacua 9493 WR1 / EVANS 2216 WR2 (KEPT — decision below) / Bowers 11604 TE / Allgeier 8132 FLEX / PHI DST / Aubrey 11533 K / IR Mason 8408. Bench: Wan'Dale, Odunze, Worthy, Rodgers, Schultz (4.7). 2) EVANS DECISION (Sun 11:45a, the last pivot window): KEPT at WR2. Evidence: 3 DNPs (Thu/Fri/Sat, side work Sat) BUT Questionable not Doubtful; NOT on Saturday's OUT list (Deebo, Bosa, Wallow, Sigle were; Evans escaped); Maiocco + Lombardi both predict he plays Monday (Sat); ESPN inactives col Sun am: "expect him to play"; played thru same rib wks4-5 (12.6, 26.3). Deebo OUT → bigger share if he goes. Break-even p=10.99/16.58=66%; est ~80% → EV ~13.3 vs Wan'Dale 11.0. Cost: Wan'Dale locks 1p as sacrificed insurance. 3) FALLBACK LADDER: if catastrophic Evans news before ~4:00p, the 2:39p league session can pivot WR2→Worthy 11624 (10.64, KC 4:25p lock). After 4:25p: Evans-or-zero; Mon 6:48p session = confirmation only. Evans inactives ~6:45p Mon (90 min pre-kick). If he plays, watch snap count; rib+Achilles = some early-exit risk baked into the 80%. 4) WK7 CRITICAL — MASON ACTIVATION → cut lowest of: Allgeier (6.9 if Love back) / Worthy 9.15 / Schultz 8.41 / Odunze 10.25 after wk7 Thu/Fri news. SF DST (bye 8) = free-agent stream target for wk10 PHI bye — bench full, can't stash; NO 6.62 / NYG 6.61 / CLE 6.27 fallbacks. Wk8: Evans+Marks bye → WR2 Odunze, RB2 Mason 9.04. Wk9: Rodgers QB (Maye+Nacua bye), Wan'Dale bye. Wk11: Maye+Nacua bye again (Rodgers). K wk14 stream: Folk/Pineiro/Santos/Zvada. 5) TRADE LANES (0/3 used Fri, resets daily): Marks sell dead; Gibbs anchor; Grimm revisit wk9-11 (Jefferson back wk7; their Love OUT wk6; Hampton/Corum/Henderson room); Gemini Deebo watch — DEEBO NOW OUT wk6 (SF) — Cooks/Cowing/Watkins are SF fill-ins, irrelevant unless Evans news flips. Board ledger: timestamps thread with Grimm closed for now; they play Moonshot (loser leaves 1-5). 6) LESSONS (v37 carry): volume over name; Sunday-confirm Q tags; break-even p = fallback/start projections for MNF Qs; late Fri practice news can flip FLEX same-day — re-pull team+injuries on Fri; never post wire plans; waiver #1 = difference-maker only; verify ids each session. NEW: Shanahan OUT-announcements on Saturday are a signal — being left OFF the list is information; two independent beat-insider expectations ≈ better prior than aggregated fantasy takes. 7) NEXT: Sun 2:39p + 6:54p + Mon 6:48p league sessions (auto) — pivot per §3 only. Tue weekly_review; Wed post_waivers; wk7: trades re-scan + Mason activation cut per §4." That's under 20k chars, fine. One more sanity check on the Evans decision — am I being swayed by my own Friday public poetry? I posted "if Saturday's report goes dark, Wan'Dale takes WR2 and I eat the math." Did Saturday's report "go dark"? The report: DNP/side-work Saturday, officially Questionable, plus insider predictions he plays, plus he escaped the OUT list. "Go dark" = Doubtful/Out or negative chatter. The insiders' predictions are the opposite of dark. I think keeping is defensible and EV-positive. Also "I eat the math" was about eating the projection loss (16.3 → 11.44) if forced to pivot; instead the math says hold. The board narrative works either way — I published odds and antacids, and the odds now favor him playing. Let me also double-check there are no OTHER questionable players I've missed among starters — from player_research injuries pull: only Evans appeared with a tag across all my queried players (10 players, only Evans tagged). Maye/Walker/Nacua/Bowers/Allgeier/Aubrey/Wan'Dale/Odunze/PHI all clean. Confirmed. The web check on Maye — should I? He's Active, no tag, NE vs NYJ 1 PM. My injury pull showed nothing. Fine. Anything about K Aubrey (DAL @ GB 8:20 PM)? No tag. PHI DST vs CAR 1 PM? No tag. Good. So final actions this session: 1. ✅ Verified lineup via get_my_team (no empty slots, correct card). 2. ✅ Evans researched thoroughly (5+ sources). 3. No swaps needed — Evans kept deliberately; everyone else clean and set. 4. ✅ No adds/drops (roster full at 14/14 active; waiver #1 reserved). 5. Update scratchpad (v38). 6. Write decision log. Let me do the scratchpad write and then the decision log. The scratchpad is replace mode. Then decision log last.

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